John’s Blog - Coast To Coast

ANONYMOUS… 

If you’re a blogger and an avid reader of other blogs like me, you’ve probably seen this before.  You read a blog post and you see that there are comments about the post, particularly if it’s about something interesting or controversial.  Often times the comments are complete with the full name of the poster and even a link to their own blog or webpage.  Other times, I’ll see anonymous comments from people who do not do so much as to even state the first initial of their name.  Now this is fine if you’re just leaving a little note, or saying something kind to said blog author.   More times than not though, the anonymous commenters aren’t very nice.  In fact they are often just plain mean and condescending!!!

Fortunately (perhaps), I rarely receive anonymous comments on my blog.  When I have received such comments in the past, the people have had the common decency to at least leave me a first name.  There are probably a good dozen or so blogs that I regularly read, and sometimes the authors receive some rather scathing anonymous comments without so much as a mention from the writers as to whom they are…

The above leads me to the following question.  If you’re going to write a mean or “put-down” anonymous comment on someone or to someone, then why are you afraid of so much as stating your first name???   Are you scared that the said blog writer is going to come find you and give you a scolding???   Are you afraid of what your friends would think if they suddenly found out you weren’t the nice person you pretended to be???  Are you afraid of what would happen if your boss found out???  Just what is the motive behind these kind of anonymous comments???

To me, those people that leave the above type of anonymous comments are just big phoneys, cowards and scaredy cats!  If you don’t have the backbone to state your identity and actually BACK UP what you’re saying then you really shouldn’t be commenting anonymously in the first place. 
 
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Courtesy of Dan Steinberg and the Washington Post’s DC Sports Bog!! Check it out here: Today’s Top Five: Nats Fans in L.A.!!!!

And while you’re there, please check out the rest of Dan’s Sports Bog articles. Dan does a great job of covering the D.C. sports scene with his own unique and very witty perspective… There’s a little something for everyone there, whether you’re a die-hard sports fan, or a more casual one.

While I was watching the Dodgers sweep the Nationals to record their fourth straight win, the Los Angeles/Anaheim Angels were once again ready to take care of business against Ichiro, “King” Felix Hernandez and the rest of their Mariner buddies at Safeco Field. The Mariners went into the series with high hopes as they only trailed the Angels by two games in the American League West race as it started Monday night… They went into Wednesday’s game four back, with a pitching staff reeling from the 16 runs the Angels had put up in the first two games of the series. Unfortunately for the Mariners, the Angel scoring barrage would continue Wednesday afternoon.

The red-hot Garret Anderson continued his recent assault on anyone wearing an opposing uniform, going 4-for-5, including driving in his 16th run in his past nine games with a run scoring single in the first. Vladimir Guerrero slugged his 22nd home run of the year as the Angels pounded King Felix for 13 hits and six earned runs in seven plus innings. The Angels would tack on two more runs in the ninth for an easy 8-2 win. Jered Weaver went eight innings for the first time in his career to secure his 10th win of the year, allowing only one earned run and scattering seven hits, walking none and striking out five. With the sweep, the Angels are now five games in front of Seattle in the American League West race. They now come home to begin a three game series against the Texas Rangers starting tomorrow night. Joe Saunders takes the mound for the Halos, while Vicente Padilla is scheduled to go for the visitors.

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I left home very early this morning - around 9:20am as I headed to Dodger Stadium to watch the Blue Crew take on the Washington Nationals… now you would think that heading through L.A. around 9:45 in the morning that you wouldn’t hit much traffic… wrong!!! I’ve now come to the conclusion that the only hours you can drive in that town and not run into traffic are between the hours of 1 a.m. and 5 a.m. This city needs mass transit in the worst possible way…

In spite of the traffic, it only took me an hour and ten minutes to make the forty mile journey… your typical bright, sunshine-filled southern California summer day, though it was a lot warmer than usual - 90 degrees when the game began. It was in the mid-upper 90’s and quite humid by mid-afternoon.In addition to beating the traffic, I was also hoping to catch some of batting practice prior to the game, but as it turns out they didn’t have it today due to the earlyness of the game. Nonetheless, it was fun being in the ballpark at 10:40am, an hour and a half before the game started and then gradually watch it fill up…Surprisingly, there were actually quite a few Nationals fans there, including (as I found out later when I walked two sections over and talked to one of the groups) some relatives of right fielder Ryan Church - and they were VERY supportive!  Church is a Santa Barbara native, so that would explain his family’s presence… Being a fan of both teams, I kind of had to dress impartially, so I decided to don one of my UCLA Bruin t-shirts - though I did wear my Nats cap as the weather got warmer. Special thanks to Nicole from Welk Resorts for taking some shots of me prior to the game.

As for the game itself, it was a true rollercoaster ride - one which would last over four hours! Yes, I got my money’s worth as did the rest of the 41,913 in attendance. Most expected today’s battle between Brad Penny and Shawn Hill to be a pitcher’s duel… With ERA’s of 2.65 and 2.31 respectively, a 3-2 or 2-1 game seemed to be in the cards. After one inning, all was going according to plan as every batter on both sides made out. Something very unusual though happened (and this set the tone for the game). Every one of the six outs was made in the air. No ground outs or strikeouts. For pitchers like Penny and Hill who try to induce groundball outs, this turned out to be a bad sign.

The Nats would get to Penny in the second inning as both Austin Kearns and Ryan Church would single to right… After DeAngelo Jimenez grounded out, Robert Fick would single to right to score Kearns and give the Nats a 1-0 lead. Jesus Flores would then single in Church to make it 2-0. Hill would then sacrifice, putting Fick and Flores into scoring position. Sure enough, Nook Logan would cash in the two runner with a single to center to make it a 4-0 lead for Nationals. The Dodgers though would make up half of that deficit in the bottom of the inning. Jeff Kent singled and then Russell Martin slammed a ball deep into the left field bullpen for his 17th home run of the year to make it a 4-2 margin.

In the third, the inspired Church would strike again, pulling a ball into the right field corner to plate Felipe Lopez and give the Nats a 5-2 lead. The Dodgers then would come right back to score a run in the bottom of the fourth inning as James Loney singled in Luis Gonzalez to make it a 5-3 score.

The Nats then appeared to take control of the game in the next two innings. Ryan Zimmerman continued his hot hitting, as he singled in Felipe Lopez in the top of the 5th inning to give the Nats a 6-3 lead. Penny was then removed from the game after he was pinch-hit for in the bottom of the frame. In the 6th, the Nats gave reliever Mark Hendrickson a very rude welcome as Robert Fick greeted him with a one out homer deep to right field. Jesus Flores then hit a long double to left field. After Hill struck out, Logan would strike again, singling to center to score Flores. The score was now 8-3, Nationals. It looked like things were well in hand.

The Dodgers though were determined and quickly rallied. Jeff Kent lined a ball on one hop into the right field stands for a ground-rule double with one out in the bottom of the 6th. Luis Gonzalez then walked. And then for the second game in a row, Felipe Lopez made a critical fielding error to give the Dodgers an extra out. Russell Martin hit a routine grounder to Lopez, but he booted it for an error.

James Loney then worked the count to 3-2 before sharply lining a ball down the first base line to clear the bases and end Hill’s day. Luis Ayala then relieved Hill, and the newly aquired Shea Hillenbrand would hit a long flyball deep into the left-center field pavalion to tie the game at 8. Ayala would get out of the inning, and we would go to the 7th.

In that seventh inning, the Nats again rallied. Austin Kearns was hit by a pitch, and then Church singled to left for his third hit of the game. The light-hitting Jimenez would strike again, singling to center to plate Kearns to give the Nats their third lead of the game at 9-8. Once again though, the Dodgers would come back in the bottom of the frame. Matt Kemp would lead off with a long home run deep into the right field seats off of Ayala to once again tie the game at 9. Kent then doubled to left for his third hit of the game. Jesus Colome and Jon Rauch would then come in and close out the inning… and as it turned out, the game would end up 9-9 at the end of the 9 innings of regulation… And so it went… the scoring ceased for the first two extra innings as well. Set-up man Jonathan Broxton, closer Takeshi Saito and long reliever Scott Proctor would all pitch scoreless ball for the Dodgers… Chris Schroeder and closer Chad Cordero came in for the Nationals and likewise shut down the home team.

Proctor, always an innings eater for the Yankees, was asked to go a third inning against the Nationals and he got into a little trouble right away, giving up a walk to Church and a single to Jimenez to open up the 12th inning. For Church, it was his fifth time reaching base - the first time he’s ever accomplished that feat. His four hits also tied a career high. Yes, he was inspired! Proctor got bailed out by the pitcher’s best friend though, as Fick would ground into a double play to end the Nats threat. The bottom of the 12th began omniously for the Nationals. Saul Rivera gave up Jeff Kent’s fourth hit of the game - a line single to left to lead off the inning. Then of all things, pitcher Eric Stults pinch-hit for Proctor! It’s pretty rare to see a pitcher pinch-hit, but the Dodgers were all out of position players by that time! Stults would eventually strike out. Russell Martin would then hit a ball down the right field line which looked like it might score Kent all the way from first. Kent made it about 1/3 of the way to home before he slammed on the brakes. James Loney was then intentionally walked, setting the stage once more for Hillenbrand. Shea took the first pitch he saw and drove it to medium right field.

Kent tagged and did an outstanding head-first slide into home to score the winning run in spite of a nice throw by Kearns… Kent and Hillenbrand then were mobbed by their Dodger teammates! So, for the Dodgers, it was their third straight one-run victory over the Nationals. The record may show that the Dodgers swept the series, but truth of the matter is that EVERY game could have gone either way!!!
The Dodgers now head off to San Diego to begin a crucial three game series against the rival Padres. The Nationals go home to JFK to begin a three game series against the San Francisco Giants.

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If you’re reading this, then you probably have a pretty good idea of my interests, likes and dislikes… hopefully you like what you’re reading.  I just wanted to give a quick thanks to everyone who has been reading this blog of mine since I started it a little over five months ago.  I’ve received so many kind words, and words of encouragement over that time from friends, family, and even complete strangers.  I’m very blessed and thankful to have so many people enjoying my writing!  And by the way, if you haven’t heard Tim McGraw’s song with the same name as my post title today, do yourself a favor and give it a listen - it’s a very powerful and moving tribute to a military officer who makes the ultimate sacrifice.  Actually, go one better and buy the new version of his “Let It Go” CD which includes the song as a bonus track.  It’s definitely one of the best CD’s of the year!

The above said, you probably know what’s next - yes, it’s some baseball coverage!  One of these days when the Galaxy and Mr. Beckham actually do something notable, I promise to give you some coverage there - right now with their 3-5-4 record and Beckham not scoring much, there’s not a lot to say though.  The U.S Open tennis tournament is also happening, but without any major upsets in the first day, there’s not a lot to write about - yet!  College football is coming soon too… Of course, I look forward to nothing more than this December’s second annual UCLA beats USC game!

The Washington Nationals were in town again to play the again Dodgers last night, and the game was a virtual carbon copy of Monday night’s game.  The Nats took an early 1-0 lead in the first off Dodger starter Chad Billingsley as Dmitri Young’s double scored Felipe Lopez.   Jason Bergmann pitched well for the Nats in his return from the DL, giving up only three runs and six hits in his six innings of work.  Shea Hillenbrand gave the Dodgers the lead in the second, scoring Jeff Kent and Russell Martin with a one-out single.  Kent extended the Dodger lead to 3-1 with a solo homer to left field in the thrid inning, his 17th of the year. 

The Nats managed to claw their way back against Billingsley, scoring a run in the fourth on a Brian Schneider sacrifice fly.  The Nats then tied the game at 3 as Tony Batista homered deep to center.  Bergmann was now off the hook for the loss, and it now looked like Billingsley would end up with a no-decision.  The Dodgers would rally again the bottom of the 7th though as Billingsley’s pinch-hitter Mike Sweeney hit a one-out double off of reliever Chris Schroeder.  After a walk to Rafael Furcal, Juan Pierre reached on an error by Felipe Lopez to load the bases.  Lopez’ error would prove to be very costly as Andre Ethier would score Sweeney with a sacrifice fly to center.

From there, Jonathan Broxton held down the Nats for his 27th hold in the eighth inning, and Takeshi Saito pitched a scoreless ninth, striking out pinch hitter Wily Mo Pena to end the game and pick up his 36th save of the year.  The win was Billingsley’s ninth of the year and moved the Dodgers to within 4 1/2 games of the National League West lead held by the Arizona Diamondbacks and 3 1/2 games of the NL Wild Card lead, currently held by the San Diego Padres.  Of note, with his 2-for-4 performance, Dmitri Young reclaimed the lead in the NL batting race.  At .337, he’s in a virtual tie with Chase Utley of the Philadelphia Phillies.  This afternoon, Brad Penny takes on Shawn Hill in the series finale.  Coverage of the game begins at 3:05 ET/12:05 PT on MASN in the D.C. area and on Prime Sports here in L.A.

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Last night may have marked a huge turning point in the seasons of the Los Angeles/Anaheim Angels and the Seattle Mariners… Ervin Santana once again relapsed into his “bad road pitcher Ervin” mold, recording only a single out while giving up 4 hits, two walks and five earned runs before he was pulled for Dustin Moseley in game two of their series at Safeco Field in Seattle.  As most people know, the Angels are very resilent, with 30 come from behind victories on the year. So, no lead is safe against them.  Such was the case last night.  The Halos would score a single run in the top of the third off of Mariners starter Jeff Weaver.  Solo homers by Gary Matthews Jr. and Kendry Morales pulled the Angels to within two in the fourth.  Orlando Cabrera and Jeff Mathis plated runs in the top of the fourth to tie the game at 5.

As for Moseley, he was simply outstanding in his emergency relief role, pitching 5 1/3 innings of shutout ball before being relieved by Justin Speier in the 6th inning.  Vladimir Guerrero would give the Angels their first lead of the game, plating Mathis with a double to left in the top of the 7th inning. Ichiro Suzuki would quickly tie things back up though off of Speier, slapping a single to center to score Yulenski Betancourt. 

The Angels would quickly reclaim the lead though…. Gary Matthews walked and then stole second base to begin the 8th inning.  Kendry Morales would double him home to give the Angels a 7-6 lead.   Reggie Willits would draw a two-out walk.  Orlando Cabrera then singled to load the bases for ol’ #27… As usual, “Super-Vlad” would deliver, lining a single to left to plate both Morales and Willits.  Maicer Izturis would then plate Cabrera and give the Angels a 10-6 lead…  Scott Shields would then shut the door on the Mariners, pitching two shutout innings to give Speier his second win of the season.  With the victory, the Angels now lead the Mariners by four games in the American League West race.  Jered Weaver takes on “King” Felix Hernandez in game three of the series beginning at 4:35 ET/1:35 PT.

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Lastly, and sadly, the Boston Red Sox lost to the New York Yankees by a 5-3 count last night at Yankee Stadium.  The Sox lost in spite of the presence of Tiger Woods (who earlier in the day rang the bell on Wall Street)… I don’t know who Tiger was pulling for - hopefully NOT the Yankees!  In spite of the loss, the Sox still carry a sizeable seven game lead over the Yankees in the AL East race. 

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When the Dodgers’ Derek Lowe is on his game, he’s inducing a lot of ground balls.  After inducing two ground outs and a strikeout in the first inning against the Washington Nationals last night, it appeared it was going to be another typical night for D-Lowe.  The Dodger offense would stake Lowe to a 2-0 lead in the first inning as they parlayed three singles and a walk into runs by Rafael Furcal and Juan Pierre.

In the top of the second, the meat of the Nats lineup quickly changed things.  Da’ Meathook, Dmitri Young hit a Lowe offering deep into the left center field seats.  After an Austin Kearns single, Wily Mo Pena powered a ball the other way and into the left field stands for his fourth homer in just 10 games for the Nationals.  Unfortunately for the Nats, on the pitch prior to his homer, Pena hit a foul ball off his left foot and he had to leave the game after literally limping around the bases.  

D-Lowe made some personal history of sorts in the top of the fifth inning as Ryan Zimmerman lined a high fastball deep to center field for his 22nd home run of the year, to give the Nats a 4-2 lead.  For a ground ball pitcher like Lowe, giving up three home runs in a game is indeed a rare event.  The last time it happened was over two years ago on August 16, 2005 against the Atlanta Braves courtesy of Chipper Jones, Brian McCann and the aforementioned Furcal. 

Bascik pitched well after his rocky first inning, only giving up two hits and a walk, while being aided by two double plays.  In the bottom of the sixth though, he ran into some trouble.  Jeff Kent led off the inning with a hard grounder that Felipe Lopez was able to range to his right on and stop, however he could not control the ball and Kent reached base on what was scored an infield single.  Andre Ethier then singled to right.  Russell Martin would then single to center to score Kent and knock Bacsik out of the game.   Jesus Colome relieved Bacsik and promptly gave up a single to James Loney to score Ethier and tie the game.  Ramon Martinez then hit a sacrifice fly to center to score Martin to give the Dodgers their first lead of the night at 5-4.

From there on, the offenses were silenced.  Mark Hendrickson and Scott Proctor relieved Lowe and pitched scoreless frames, while Ray King, Luis Ayala and Jon Rauch all did the same for the Nats.  Takeshi Saito closed out things for his 35th save, and gave Lowe his 11th win of the year.  For the Dodgers, it was a very much needed win as it keeps them 3 1/2 games behind the San Diego Padres for the wild card spot in the playoffs. For the Nats, it was yet another frustrating loss and fourth straight of the road trip.  The only solace that the Nats can take out of this loss is that the three home runs now have them at 95 for the year, and no longer alone and last in the league in that category - they are now tied for last with the Dodgers in that department.  Game two of the three game series begins at 10:10 ET/7:10 PT tonight as Brad Penny takes on Jason Bergmann fresh off the DL.  You can catch the game in D.C. on MASN2 and on Prime Ticket if you’re in L.A.

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Angels ace John Lackey had been struggling coming into last night’s game against the Seattle Mariners.  After allowing 39 hits and 14 earned runs in his previous four outings covering 25 2/3 innings, many were wondering if perhaps the Angels’ “bulldog” was being overworked… Thankfully, for the Angels, Lackey was back on his game last night throwing only 109 pitches in a complete game 6-0 shutout of the Seattle Mariners in the first of a crucial three game series between the top two teams in the American League West… Lackey scattered seven hits, walked none and struck out five to record his 16th win of the year.  The win increased the Angels lead over the Mariners to three games.  Garret Anderson continued to be red-hot, slamming his 10th homer of the year and singling to drive in three runs.  “G.A” now has four homers and 14 RBI’s in his past seven games.  Two pitchers with some interesting history pitch the second game of the series.  Ervin Santana takes the mound for the Angels, while Jeff Weaver pitches for the Mariners. 

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In other games, how about those Tigers???  The team from Detroit completely demolished the visiting New York Yankees… How bad was the demolishment?  Well it turned out to be a 16-0 shellacking of the Bronx Bombers - the worst shutout loss in the ENTIRE history of the Yankees!!!  Justin Verlander went severn strong innings for the Tigers, only giving up three hits and two walks, while striking out six.  Yankee starter Mike Mussina was pummelled again, giving up six runs, nine hits and a walk in his three innings… Sean Henn took the brunt of the Tigers abuse, giving up nine runs (sevent earned), eight hits and five walks in his 2 2/3 innings of work.  The loss drops the Yankees eight games back of the Boston Red Sox in the American League East race and two games back of the Mariners in the AL Wild Card chase.  The Red Sox travel to Yankee Stadium today to begin the much-awaited and critical three game series against their arch rivals.  Daisuke Matsuzaka takes on Andy Pettitte in game one of the match-up.

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Well, tonight the much awaited (OK, personally much awaited) series between the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Dodgers takes place beginning tonight at Dodger Stadium… While I won’t be taking the 35 mile drive to and from Chavez Ravine tonight or tomorrow night, I will be making the journey for Wednesday’s day game. Derek Lowe will face off against Mike Bacsik tonight. Chad Billingsley will take on Jason Bergmann (in his first start back from the DL) on Tuesday, while Brad Penny will face Shawn Hill in the series finale.

One thing you won’t expect to see in the series is a lot of power. The Dodgers rank next to last in the league with just 95 round-trippers. Although Ryan Zimmerman has already established a new career high of 21 home runs, the Nationals rank last in the senior circuit with only 92 home runs. Don’t expect them to remain there much longer though, as the recent addition of Wily Mo Pena has already paid some dividends. Wily Mo, very impressively, has slugged three homers in his first nine games as a Nat. Speaking of Zimmerman, he has been red-hot ever since I last saw the Nats play in person on July 8th (Miss DC Day at the Nationals), slugging 8 HR with 33 RBI’s and a .318 batting average over the past 44 games. Similarly, Nook Logan (.320 BA, 10 steals), Dmitri Young (.320 BA, 4 HR, 26 RBI), and Austin Kearns (.297 BA, 6 HR, 24 RBI) also appear to have been inspired by the happenings at RFK Stadium that sunny day in July.

Conversely, the teams are much better on the pitching side of the ledger - the Dodgers are 2nd in the league with a 3.99 ERA, while the Nationals own a respectable 4.55 ERA - good for 9th in the league. Game one of the series starts tonight at 10:10 ET/7:10 PT. Those of you in the D.C. area can catch the game on MASN, while those of you in L.A. can watch on Prime Ticket (formerly Fox Sports West 2).

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Usually when I watch a golf tournament on TV,  I like to root on my favorite players.  Whether it be Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Fred Couples, Davis Love III, Zach Johnson, K.J. Choi or one of my other favorites, half the fun in watching is cheering for one of your guys to win and then seeing them pull it off… The same goes for the LPGA tournaments - if Lorena Ochoa, Morgan Pressel or Natalie Gulbis is competing (and what guy in his right mind doesn’t root for Natalie???), I follow and cheer them on…

Golf is a gentleman’s game.  It always has been, and hopefully always will be.  Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Tom Watson, Greg Norman, Ben Crenshaw… do any of those names sound familiar???  Players such as Woods, Mickelson, Couples, Love, Johnson and Choi appreciate the game and it’s history and treat it as such. 

This past week, Rory Sabbatini once again called out the world’s number one ranked player.  Why???  Is he that insecure with himself that he has to try cause trouble with Tiger?  Remember what happened the last time he did that???  He got paired up with Tiger in the final round of the Bridgestone Invitational.  Rory went into the final round with a one stroke lead… in that final round, Tiger tore up the course shooting a 5-under-par 65.  Rory flat out choked, shooting a four-over par-74 and finishing eight strokes back of Tiger.  Game, set and match!

I hate to admit it, but I watched the fourth and final round of the Barclay’s Championship today not so much rooting for Mickelson or Choi to win as much as I was rooting for anyone but Rory to win!!!  Yes, watching PGA Tour golf events where Rory is in the hunt has brought it to this, unfortunately.  Other fans feel very much the same way about Rory and rightfully so.  Check out this article I found called Rory Sabbatini: OK for Me to Drop F-Bombs, Not OK for You to Ask Me a Question :  

http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/08/07/rory-sabbatini-ok-for-me-to-drop-f-bombs-not-ok-for-you-to-ask  

The article and it’s comments make for some very good reading, and further elaborate on how Rory has alienated himself from the fans and the other touring pros.  There was even a poll taken amongst PGA Tour players recently, and the question was asked as to whom you would least like to play a round of golf with.  The winner (garnering 25% of the vote) was not at all surprisingly Rory. 

Rory Sabbatini is undoubtedly one of the tour’s best players today.  I’m not a fan of guys like Vijay Singh or Colin Montgomerie but do I openly root for “anyone other than them” to win?  Of course, not.  Singh, Montgomerie and the other tour players (whether they are my favorites or not) have my respect as they are usually gracious in both victory and defeat.  I do not respect Rory Sabbatini.  I don’t think most golf fans respect Rory Sabbatini.  I don’t think most professional golfers respect Rory Sabbatini.  I’m not sure how it feels to be an outcast on the tour, but I do know in my 35 years or so of watching the tour, never has a player caused me to actually dislike him so much that I want him to lose.  Rory, it’s OK to be nice, or just attempt to be nice.  You will be a much better person for it, and heck you just might get a few people to actually root for you one of these days!

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Just a quick little entry today before I’m out and about… all of my favorite baseball teams (except the Red Sox) lost yesterday, so I figured I’d drop a little blurb in on football real quick.  I have yet another of my fantasy football league drafts tonight at 8PM ET/5 PM PT - so if you try to eMail/IM me for about that next hour tonight, well you’ll probably know why I don’t respond.  These things do take concentration and energy after all! :)  A bottle of water or some pop is also a requisite.  This particular league I’m in is a keeper league, meaning that I got to bring three players back from last year.  My three keepers are pretty good: Larry Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Torry Holt.  This team happened to be one of my four (out of seven) that didn’t win it’s league last year, however, we had a “draft bracket” amongst the teams that didn’t make the playoffs which I won.  So I get the number 1 pick tonight… Two of my favorite players are available - Antonio Gates of the San Diego Chargers and Reggie Wayne of the Indianapolis Colts.  The only question is which one of the two am I going to pick???  Either way, I don’t think I can go wrong!!!  Results to be posted either tonight or tomorrow morning!

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Yes, it’s 7:40pm, and I still haven’t blogged yet today.  You regulars are probably wondering just exactly where I’ve been all day.  Well, I’ve been doing A LOT of studying of baseball statistics, trends and probabilities.  Most of you that follow major league baseball know that Justin Morneau of the Minnesota Twins is one of the league’s best young players.  The controversial AL MVP award winner last year (many thought David Ortiz, Derek Jeter or teammate Johan Santana were more deserving), Morneau is someone who many think will someday hit 50 or more home runs in a year.  At 26 years of age, growth is definitely still possible.  Morneau hit 34 home runs in his MVP campaign last year, and through the games of July 23rd this year, he had hit 28 home runs.  That date also happened to be the Twins’ 100th game of the year, and at the time he was on pace to hit approximately 45 home runs.

The very next day, Morneau would go 0-for-4… The next five games, he would get red-hot, hitting .538 (9-for-17) but without a longball… A 1-for-22 (.045) slump would follow the following six games, the lone hit being a single.  A 2-game hot spell against Kansas City 4-for-9 (.444) then occured… This was followed by a 2-for-20 (.100) five game stretch.  Morneau’s homerless drought had now reached 19 games.  Perhaps even more concerning to me is that over that time he drew only one walk, while striking out 12 times.   Was he pressing???  With only 16 hits in that 72 at bat stretch, one walk, and no homers, perhaps he was.  That 45 home run projection was quickly becoming a VERY distant memory.  Many people thought that perhaps he was hiding an injury…

Morneau went 3-for-10 the next two games, but once again without a walk or home run and adding three more strikeouts.  On September 17th, things began to change.  Morneau drew his first walk in 16 games as he went 1-for-3.  Over the next six games he would go 9-for-22 (.409), while drawing six more walks, only striking out once.  Still though, the home run was missing from his resume’.  Morneau had gone an ENTIRE MONTH (28 games played) without a home run!!!  In 104 at bats, he had tallied 28 hits for a decent .269 batting average.  His on-base percentage though was only .319 and his home run-deprived slugging percentage was only .346. 

And then last night, it finally happened… Given that he had reached base in 15 of his previous 28 plate appearances (9 hits, 6 walks), I figured he might soon finally break out of his power drought… Sure enough he went 2-for-5 last night with his first home run in a month…

This all leads me back to the question… just how much out of the normal statistical probabilities was it for Morneau to go 104 at bats without a home run???  So I went off to Google some stuff on statistics and baseball.  I soon stumbled upon a book online called Teaching Statistics Using Baseball by Jim Albert - who happens to be a college professor (and also a big Philadelphia Philles fan).  Although only a few pages were available for viewing online, I  comprehended the material so well that I wanted to see more.  Unfortunately, trips to my local Barnes & Noble and Borders did not yield any copies of the book in stock.   Nonetheless, I was able to take the information from some of the examples used in the book (most notably Chicago Cubs thirdbaseman Aramis Ramirez) and apply it towards Morneau.

Prior to his recent power slump, Morneau had hit 107 home runs in his first 1830 major league at bats.  A rate of one every 17.10 at bats.  Some quick figuring shows that over 104 at bats, you would expect to see Morneau on average hit about six home runs.  What I’ll show next is a table showing the probabilites of normal statistical home run outcomes for Morneau in 104 at bats based on his prior history:

HR Chance
– —-
0  0.19%
1  1.23%
2  3.92%
3  8.29%
4 12.99%
5 16.14%
6 16.54%
7 14.38%
8 10.83%
9  7.17%
10 4.23%
11 2.25%
12 1.08%
13 0.47%
14 0.19%
15+ 0.10%

As you would expect, the typical 104 at bat sequence by Morneau should produce 5 or 6 home runs almost a third (32.68%) of the time.  Almost 95% of the time (94.48%), you would expect Morneau to hit between 2 and 10 home runs in a 104 at bat sequence.  The 95% level is significant because this number represents the normal “standard deviation” in mathematical circles…  Based on the above findings, if you gave Morneau 104 at bats, you would expect him to go homerless only once in 526 such periods!!!  In other words, he would have to have a career of around 54,737 at bats expect this to happen once… Only a very few batters in the history of baseball have even managed to accumulate 1/6 of that number of at bats…

Thanks to a couple of nice websites, it’s actually pretty easy to take Morneau’s career numbers and break them into almost equal increments of around 104 at bats each (the actual numbers are between 100 and 106 at bats for each of the now 19 segments)…

06/10/03-09/26/03: 101 AB, 4 HR
09/27/03-08/03/04: 100 AB, 6 HR
08/04/04-09/03/04: 103 AB, 10 HR
09/04/04-04/25/05: 101 AB, 4 HR
04/26/05-05/25/05: 100 AB, 6 HR
05/26/05-07/04/05: 100 AB, 4 HR
07/05/05-08/08/05: 101 AB, 4 HR
08/09/05-09/10/05: 101 AB, 4 HR
09/11/05-04/12/06: 100 AB, 7 HR
04/13/06-05/17/06: 101 AB, 5 HR
05/18/06-06/18/06: 100 AB, 7 HR
06/19/06-07/21/06: 102 AB, 9 HR
07/22/06-08/18/06: 100 AB, 6 HR
08/19/06-09/16/06: 101 AB, 2 HR
09/17/06-04/16/07: 103 AB, 5 HR
04/17/07-05/16/07: 104 AB, 7 HR
05/17/07-06/16/07: 106 AB, 8 HR
06/17/07-07/23/07: 106 AB, 9 HR 
07/24/07-08/23/07: 104 AB, 0 HR

The actual distribution:

HR #
– -
0  1
1  0
2  1
3  0
4  5
5  2
6  3
7  3
8  1
9  2
10 1
—-

Other than that recent stretch, there are no other “outliers”… one period late last year, saw a stretch of only two home runs in 101 at bats, while a stretch covering most of August 2004 and into early September of that year, saw Morneau hit 10 home runs.  Given the corresponding 3.92 and 4.23% respective percentages, you would expect to see a two home run and a ten home run stretch represented.  Now, while the numbers don’t represent a perfect “bell curve”, the majority of the occurances (13 of 19) did fall between 4 and 7 home runs, something you would expect to happen about 60% of the time…  The 104 homerless at bat streak though is clearly an outlier, and not one we would expect a healthy Morneau to ever repeat in his career.

—–

Now that I have some of COMPLETELY bored and proabably confused, I promise to go back to my usual fare tomorrow.